Thursday, May 28, 2009

Annual Reports: How to Understand the Financial Picture of any Company | Jutia Group

Annual Reports: How to Understand the Financial Picture of any Company | Jutia Group

Take away:
Current ratio=current asset / current liability.
financial solvency = debt/equity

Warren Buffett MBA Talk

Intrinsic value for Philips (PHG) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:6
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:38.67
52WeeksLow:13.91
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):-0.28,5.21,1.09,2.76,2.41,0.69
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):30.83,41.31,34.0,28.69,27.17,23.0
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.09,0.8,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:95.17966%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:-2.663896
Average dividend: $0.6283333
Average dividend payout: -38.52202%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $598.4406
future value in year 2018: $689.2491
intrinsic value: $170.3718
safe price by intrinsic value: $85.18592
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $26.29

Intrinsic value for JP Morgan (JPM) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:6
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:50.63
52WeeksLow:14.96
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.37,4.38,3.86,2.95,3.01,3.24
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):33.15,48.52,43.15,36.44,37.47,31.25
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.52,1.48,1.36,1.36,1.36,1.36

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:-6.698924%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:13.48326
Average dividend: $1.406667
Average dividend payout: 52.2053%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $9.233834
future value in year 2018: $14.57337
intrinsic value: $3.602314
safe price by intrinsic value: $1.801157
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $32.795

Intrinsic value for HWD 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:5
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:31.09
52WeeksLow:1.69
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.81,1.59,1.39,1.03,0.24
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):17.07,38.04,38.29,33.75,32.95
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):0.15,0.5,0,0,0

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:98.08577%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:46.19218
Average dividend: $0.13
Average dividend payout: 7.946767%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $77764.23
future value in year 2018: $77900.48
intrinsic value: $19255.8
safe price by intrinsic value: $9627.902
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $16.39

Intrinsic value for RTP (RTP) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:7
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:499.79
52WeeksLow:59.20
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):32.11,23.15,22.22,14.53,6.44,4.38,4.44
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):271.0,298.85,218.62,146.88,99.58,90.50,77.44
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):6.08,4.64,6.0,3.34,2.64,2.42,2.74

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:44.51937%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:13.55185
Average dividend: $3.98
Average dividend payout: 35.27491%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $17294.16
future value in year 2018: $18279.87
intrinsic value: $4518.505
safe price by intrinsic value: $2259.252
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $279.495

Intrinsic value for JohnsonJohnson (JNJ) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:6
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:72.76
52WeeksLow:46.25
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):4.55,4.15,3.76,3.39,3.10,2.65
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):63.57,64.48,62.92,64.31,57.85,52.56
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.795,1.620,1.455,1.275,1.095,0.925

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:11.45226%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:17.28476
Average dividend: $1.360833
Average dividend payout: 37.50373%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $232.5754
future value in year 2018: $261.7391
intrinsic value: $64.69789
safe price by intrinsic value: $32.34895
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $59.505

Intrinsic value for China Telecom (CHA) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:5
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:65.04
52WeeksLow:25.89
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):3.42,3.46,4.21,2.99,2.67
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):55.81,66.00,38.40,35.54,34.10
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.10,0,0,0,0

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:8.454224%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:13.83456
Average dividend: $0.22
Average dividend payout: 6.432749%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $106.5262
future value in year 2018: $109.7828
intrinsic value: $27.13662
safe price by intrinsic value: $13.56831
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $45.465

Note: cannot get complete dividend data.

Intrinsic value for China Petral & Chem (SNP) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:5
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:114.63
52WeeksLow:46.45
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):4.35,8.55,7.31,5.82,3.01
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):101.39,115.73,69.65,47.03,32.11
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.32,0,0,0,0

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:21.69928%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:13.02406
Average dividend: $0.264
Average dividend payout: 6.068966%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $403.7529
future value in year 2018: $411.2067
intrinsic value: $101.644
safe price by intrinsic value: $50.822
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $80.54

Note: cannot get the complete dividend data.

Top largest caps in industries

The second level is the industries whose market cap > 100B. The companies are the top 5 largest cap in its industry.

Healthcare:
Drug Manufactures-Major: JohnsonJohnson(JNJ),Pfizer(PFE),Novartis(NVS),GlaxoSmithKline(GSK),Sanofi-Aventis(SNY)

Biotechnology:Amgen(AMGN),Gilead(GILD),Celgene(CELG),Genzyme(GENZ),Biogen(BIIB)

Medical Instruments & Supplies:Alcon(ACL),Baxter international(BAX),Covidien(COV),Becton, Dickinson(BDX),Stryker(SYK).

Drug Manufactures-Other:Teva pharma(TEVA),Novo Nordisk(NVO),Allergan(AGN),Forest Lab(FRX),Vertex Pharma(VRTX)

Medical Appliances & Equipment:Medtronic(MDT), St. Jude Medical (STJ), Zimmer Holdings (ZMH), Smith&Nephew (SNN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)


Financial:
Foreign Regional Banks:Banco de Chile (BCH), Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBD), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari(BBV), HDFC Bank(HDB), Shinhan Financial Group(SHG)

Foreign Money Center Banks:Banco Santander (STD), Mitsubishi UFJ (MJU), Ita Unibanco Holding (ITUB), Mizuho Financial Group(MFG), Credit Suisse Group (CS).

Money Center Banks:JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of American (BAC), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Property & Casualty Insurance:Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A), The Travelers Companies (TRV), ACE Limited(ACE), The Chubb Corp (CB), Allstate Corp (ALL)

Life Insurance:AXA(AXA), China Life Insurance(LFC), Prudential(PUK), Manulife Financial Corp(MFC), MetLife(MET)

Diversified Investments:Goldman Sachs(GS), Morgan Stanley(MS), CME Group(CME), NYSE Euronext Inc(NYX), Penn West Energy Trust (PWS).


Utilities:
Eletric Utilties:FPL Group(FPL), Southern Company(SO), Dominion Resources (D), Duke Energy Corp(DUK), Centrais Electricas(EBR)

Diversified Utilities:Exelon Corp(EXC), Public Service(PEG), PG&E(PCG), Consolidated Edison(ED), Amerem Corp.(AEE)


Basic Materials:
Independent Oil & Gas:CNOOC(CEO), China Petroleum & Chemical(SNP), Occidental Petroleum(OXY), EnCana(ECA), Suncor Energy(SU).

Major Integrated Oil & Gas:Exxon Mobil(XOM), PetroChina(PTR), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B), BP(BP), Chevron(CVX)

Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration:Petroleo(PBR),StatoilHydro(STO),Ecopetrol(EC),Transocean(RIG),Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO)

Industrial Metals & Minerals:BHP Billiton Lid (BHP), BHP Billiton plc(BBL), Cameco(CCJ),Peabody Energy(BTU),CONSOL Energy(CNX)

Steel & Iron:Vale S.A.(VALE), Rio Tinto(RTP), Arcelor(MT), POSCO(PKX),Tenaris SA(TS)

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing:Imperial Oil(IMO), Sasol(SSL), Marathon Oil(MRO), Petro-Canada(PCZ), Hess Corp(HES).

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services:Schlumberger(SLB), Halliburton(HAL), National Oilwell (NOV), Weatherford(WFT), Baker Hughes(BHI).

Gold:Barrick Gold(ABX), Goldcorp(GG), Newmont Mining(NEM), AngloGold(AU), Kinross Gold(KGC).

Agricultural Chemicals:Monsanto(MON), Potash(POT), Mosaic(MOS), Syngenta(SYT), Agrium inc(AGU)

Oil & Gas Pipelines:Kinder Morgan(KMP), Enbridge(ENB), Spectra Energy(SE), Williams(WMB), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP).

Technology:
Telecom Services - Foreign:Nippon Telegraph(NTT), Telefonica SA(TEF), Siemens(SI), France Telecom(FTE), China Telecom(CHA).

Wireless Communications:China Mobile(CHL), Vodafone Group(VOD), America Movil(AMX), NTT DoCoMo(DCM), Deutsche Telekom(DT).

Application Software:Microsoft(MSFT), Oracle(ORCL), SAP(SAP), Adobe(ADBE), CA(CA)

Diversified Communication Services:Telmex internacinal(TII), Research in Motion(RIMM), American Tower(AMT), Crown Castle International(CCI),Embarg(EQ)

Telecom Services - Domestic:AT&T(T), Verizon(VZ), BCE(BCE), Qwest(Q), Windstream(WIN),Centurytel(CTL)

Diversified Computer Systems:IBM(IBM),HP(HPQ),Sun(JAVA),International Game Tech(IGT), Teradata(TDC)

Communication Equipment:QUALCOMM(QCOMM),Nokia(NOK),DIRECTV Group(DTV),Corning(GLW),Motorola(MOT)

Internet Information Providers:Google(GOOG),Yahoo(YHOO),Baidu(BIDU),Expedia(EXPE),Priceline(PCLN).

Semiconductor - Broad Line:Intel(INTC), Texas Instruments(TXN), Anlog Devices(ADI), STMicroelectronics NV(STM), Maxim integrated Products(MXIM).

Personal Computers:Apple(AAPL),Dell(DELL), Palm(PALM)

Networking & Communication Devices:Cisco(CSCO), Juniper Network(JNPR), 3Com(COMS), Starent Networks(STAR), Riverbed Tech(RVBD).

Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits:Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM), Broadcom(BRCM), United Microelectronics(UMC), Marvell Tech(MRVL), MEMC Electronic(WFR).


Services:
Discount. Variety Stores:Walmart(WMT), Target(TGT), Costco(COST), Family Dollar stores(FDO), Dollar Tree(DLTR).

Railroads:Guangshen Railway Co.(GSH), Burlington Northen(BNI), Union Pacific(UNP), Canadian National Railway(CNI), Norfolk Southern Corp(NSC).

Business Services:Visa Inc(V), Thomson Reuters Corp(TRI), Mastercard Incorporated(MA), IntercontinentalExchange(ICE), Iron Mounntain(IRM)

CATV Systems:Comcast(CMCSA), Viacom(VIA-B), British Sky Broadcasting(BSY), Liberty Entertainment (LMDIA), Time Warner(TWC).

Restraurants:McDonald(MCD), Yum! Brands(YUM), Darden Restaurants(DRI), Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG), Burger King(BKC).


Consumer Goods:
Auto Manufactures - Major:Toyota(TM), Honda(HMC), Daimler AG(DAI), Ford(F), Tata Motors(TTM)

Processed & Packaged Goods:Pepsico Inc(PEP), Unilever NV(UN), Generial Mills(GIS), Kellogg(K), Univever plc(UL)

Personal Products: Procter&Gamble(PG), Colgate-Palmolive(CL), Kimberly-Clark Corp(KMB), Avon Products(AVP), Estee Lauder(EL)

Cigarettes:Philip Morris International(PM), British American Tobacco(BTI), Altria Group(MO), Reynolds American(RAI), Lorillard(LO)

Beverages - Soft Drinks:Coca-cola company(KO), Coca-cola enterprises Inc(CCE), Coca-cola FEMSA(KOF), Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co(CCH),Pepsi(PBG)

Industrial Goods:
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services: Lockheed Martin Corp.(LMT), Honeywell(HON), Generial Dynamics(GD), Northrop Grumman(NOC), L-3 Communications(LLL)

Conglomerates:
Conglomerates:GE(GE), United Tech(UTX), 3M(MMM), Danaher(DHR), PPG Industries(PPG), Cooper Industries(CBE).

Intrinsic value for Baidu (BIDU) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:4
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:361.99
52WeeksLow:100.50
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):4.39,2.42,1.08,0.18
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):247.21,234.88,87.75,96.30
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):0,0,0,0

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:235.1597%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:192.405
Average dividend: $0
Average dividend payout: 0%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $1.510771E+08
future value in year 2018: $1.510771E+08
intrinsic value: $3.734394E+07
safe price by intrinsic value: $1.867197E+07
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $231.245

Intrinsic value for coca-cola (KO) 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:6
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:58.84
52WeeksLow:37.44
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):3.15,2.70,2.37,2.18,2.08,1.95
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):52.06,54.98,44.52,43.19,45.17,43.18
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.52,1.36,1.24,1.12,1.00,0.88

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:10.15613%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:19.8911
Average dividend: $1.186667
Average dividend payout: 49.25438%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $164.8376
future value in year 2018: $189.7506
intrinsic value: $46.90345
safe price by intrinsic value: $23.45173
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $48.14

Intrinsic value for Microsoft 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:6
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:29.57
52WeeksLow:14.87
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):1.87,1.49,1.27,1.16,1.04,1.05
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):25.86,31.16,26.85,25.68,27.14,26.89
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):0.44,0.40,0.35,3.4,0.16,0.08

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:12.57901%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:21.62116
Average dividend: $0.805
Average dividend payout: 65.67354%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $132.2193
future value in year 2018: $154.3834
intrinsic value: $38.16121
safe price by intrinsic value: $19.0806
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $22.22

Intrinsic value for google 2008

Input......
CurrentYear:2008
YearsToBackLooking:5
YearsToForwardLooking:10
SafetyMargin:0.5
52WeeksHigh:589.92
52WeeksLow:247.30
ExpectedROI:0.15
EPSHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):19.49,15.59,10.58,5.70,2.73
AvgPriceHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):467.86,567.27,401.90,283.58,172.43
DividendHistory(YearsToBackLooking yrs):0,0,0,0,0

Output......
Average EPS annual growth rate:66.6937%
Average Price/Eearning Ratio:42.25814
Average dividend: $0
Average dividend payout: 0%
Forecasted price in year 2018: $136431.3
future value in year 2018: $136431.3
intrinsic value: $33723.72
safe price by intrinsic value: $16861.86
safe price by yearly high yearly low: $418.61

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Extended hour trading schedules

A short list of typical brokers that offer ECN access and the extended hours available is listed below. This list is meant to be illustrative, not exhaustive.

Ameritrade (via Island ECN)
Hours: 8am-8pm Eastern; limit orders only during extended hours.
E*Trade (via Archipelago ECN)
Hours: 8am-8pm Eastern; limit orders only during extended hours. Note that eextended-hours orders can be placed even during regular market hours; these orders may be filled during normal or extended-trading hours.
Fidelity (via Redibook)
Hours: 7:30-915am and 4:15-8:00pm EST; restrictions on order types.
Harris Direct (via Redibook ECN)
Hours: 8-9:15am and 4:15-7pm Eastern; limit orders only; round lots.
Schwab (via Redibook ECN)
Hours: 7:30-9:15am and 4:15-8pm Eastern, Monday - Friday; limit orders only.
TD Waterhouse (via ???)
Hours: 7:30-9:30am and 4:15-7:00pm EST

invest-faq.com

CNN money

CNN money

understand Google Finance

The P/E value is also known as the price to earnings ratio. Basically, it is the result of taking the current stock price (34.04, in this case) and dividing it by the earnings per share most recently announced by the company ($2.03 per share). The P/E ratio is the best number to use to compare stocks to others in the same sector, as this eliminates some of the major variations between companies (i.e., you can fairly compare McDonalds to Burger King using the P/E ratio, but their stock price isn’t a good comparison because one may have more stocks outstanding than the other, for example).

The F P/E value is the forward price to earnings ratio, which is almost the same as above, except it uses projections of the company’s future earnings by stock analysts instead of the company’s announced earnings per share. In this case, the analysts are projecting about $2.11 per share in earnings the next time Lowe’s announces their numbers. Because of this, the forward P/E is lower than the normal P/E; forward P/Es are lower than normal P/Es in stocks where analysts expect the companies to make more money per share the next time they announce their earnings.

The beta is a statistical model that estimates how closely the stock’s performance matches the stock market in general. The higher the beta, the closer the stock matches the general market. Blue chip stocks generally have a higher beta, whereas speculative stocks generally have a lower beta. Often, the lower the beta, the more risky the investment.

the simple dollar

Economic indicators, company 10-K

Economic indicators

Company annual reports

How to select stocks?

Step 1. Goto smartmoney to check the hottest sector, hottest industry.

Step 2. Select the hottest stocks and goto cnbc to check the earning history and trend.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Saturday, May 16, 2009